Not just heat: place-based vulnerability to temperature extremes overestimated in Europe without including measures of adaptive capacity.

Domenico Bovienzo, Ca' Foscari University of Venice
Sara Ronnkvist, University of Wisconsin-Madison
Zoé Haskell-Craig, New York University
Abbie Robinson, Pennsylvania State University
Risto Conte Keivabu, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research (MPIDR)
Mathew Hauer, Florida State University
Emilio Zagheni, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research (MPIDR)

Extreme temperatures have a profound effect on the health of the most vulnerable populations. Existing studies indicate increasing temperature extremes heighten temperature-related health risks, especially among older adults. While adaptive capacity is known to reduce temperature-related health risks, the influence of it on overall vulnerability remains still underexplored. This study aims to address this gap through a vulnerability assessment that considers temperature exposure, age composition, and adaptive capacity at a high spatial resolution in Europe. We first assess how vulnerability in Europe at the subnational level varies depending on the exposure of the individuals aged 65+ to extreme temperatures. We then incorporate adaptive capacity in our computation of vulnerability to see how the spatial patterning of vulnerability shifts. The results indicate vulnerability is largely driven by exposure to extreme cold when considering the rate of older adults and extreme temperature exposure, with Northern Europe emerging as the most vulnerable region. However, after considering adaptive capacity, Eastern and Southern Europe are found to be the highly vulnerable areas, whereas vulnerability in other regions decreases or only slight changes. These findings underscore the importance of considering multiple factors to best understand extreme temperature vulnerability and spatial inequality, including those related to health outcomes.

Keywords: Population, Environment, and Climate Change, Population Ageing, Inequality, Disadvantage and Discrimination, Health and Morbidity

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