Demographic Transformation Across Regions: The Role of Migration on Population Growth in Spain.

Guillermo Orfao, University of Salamanca
Alberto Del Rey Poveda, University of Salamanca
Jesús García-Gómez, Centre for Demographic Studies
Mengyao Wu, University of Salamanca
Emilio A. Parrado, University of Pennsylvania

This paper presents a comparative analysis of the role played by migration in recent population growth trends in six Spanish regions. This work contributes to a better understanding of how both the movements and births of national- and foreign-born individuals have influenced population growth trends in Spain. The databases used are the Spanish Residential Variation Statistics and the Natural Movement of the Population for the period 2002-2021. Through the estimation of the Population Turnover Rates, Migration Share of Turnover and Birth Share of Turnover, the analysis shows that external migration has driven most population growth across all regions, especially after 2013. Although the Birth Share of Turnover of the native-born individuals has diminished during the last two decades in all regions, there is an increasing or stable contribution of births from foreign-born parents. Additionally, a negative internal balance is found in all regions (except for the Community of Madrid), which has contributed to the aging of those regions with a population decline trend. Finally, foreign-born migration has contributed to population growth not only in terms of entries but also through births, which vary according to the migrant population’s composition.

Keywords: International Migration, Population and Development

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