Trends in Pregnancy Termination among Women of Childbearing Age in Low- and Middle- Income Countries from 2005 to 2019: an Age-Period-Cohort-Interaction Analysis

Xiaohan Zhu, Institute of Population Research, Peking University
Yushan Du, Institute of Population Research, Peking University
Chao Guo, Institute of Population Research, Peking University

Background: Pregnancy termination (PT) among women of childbearing age in low- and middle- income countries (LMICs) is related to fertility levels and reproductive health. However, studies on its long-term trends are lacking. We aimed to recognize the PT incidence trends in LMICs on age, period, and cohort dimensions from 2005 to 2019. Methods: Using data from Demographic and Health Surveys, we applied the Age-Period-Cohort-Interaction model to analyze the age, period, and cohort effects of PT in 10 developing countries from 2005 to 2019. Results: the PT incidence increased with age from 15 to 44 years old, but decreased slightly in the 45-49 age group. Period effects indicated it continuously declined over time. We identified three generational patterns and found cohort 1960 and 1980 had a “Constant” pattern, with a constant higher and lower PT incidence across life course, respectively. Cohort 1970-1975 displayed a “Cumulative Advantage” pattern, as their lower PT incidence continued to decrease with age. Cohort 1985-1995 had an “Age-As-Level” pattern, with incidence shifting to older ages. Conclusions: We revealed the age, period, and cohort trends of PT in LMICs. It is suggested to pay attention to the rebound trend of PT in LMICS, especially PT at advanced ages.

Keywords: Sexual and Reproductive Health and Rights, Data and Methods, Fertility, Family Planning and Contraception

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  Presented in Session 91. Unintended Pregnancy and Abortion: Impacts on Health and Services