The Impact of Migration on Age Structure Conducive to Human Development across the Urban Hierarchy

Wenxiu Du, Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale De Lausanne (epfl-eth)
Dorothee Beckendorff, Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale De Lausanne (epfl-eth)
Mathias Lerch, Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale De Lausanne (epfl-eth)

A larger share of the population in the working ages is beneficial for economic and social development. Many developing countries are currently experiencing this window of opportunity. However, there may be marked subnational inequalities in this development potential, as internal migration flows are age-selective and often redistribute working-age populations from less developed regions to cities for employment and upward social mobility. While many studies have focused on the age selectivity of migration, few have analyzed its impact on subnational age structures, and none have been conducted on an internationally representative sample of the Global South. We aim to fill this gap by using 75 microcensuses in 36 developing countries at different stages of urbanization. We analyze the differential impact of migration flows on the dependency ratio across the urban hierarchy and across national urbanization processes. Initial findings suggest that migration lowers the dependency ratio in higher-tier cities and raises it in lower-tier cities and outside cities, with substantial differences across urbanization stages. In-migration generally lowers the dependency ratio, while out-migration increases it. This analysis contributes to a generalizable theory of the impact of migration on age structure that is suitable for better understanding subnational differences in the demographic dividend.

Keywords: Internal Migration and Urbanization, Population and Development, Census data, Geo-referenced/geo-coded data

See extended abstract.