Do averages fool us? Birth trends in Argentina's national subdivisions during the Covid-19 Pandemic

Bruno Ribotta, Centro de Estudios Avanzados - UNC
Lucas Gabriel Vanoli Faustinelli, National University of Córdoba, Argentina
Enrique Peláez, Universidad Nacional de Córdoba
Lucía Andreozzi, Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas (CONICET) y de la Universidad Nacional de Rosario.
Manuela Burgos, Maestría en demografía Universidad Nacional de Córdoba

The purpose of this research is to analyse the situation and evolution of the birth rate during the COVID-19 pandemic in the subnational divisions of Argentina (23 provinces and the Autonomous City of Buenos Aires). Previous studies have shown that the level and pattern of the birth rate decline during the pandemic were similar between the national total and one of its largest subnational divisions, the province of Córdoba (Ribotta et al, 2023, 2024a, 2024b). However, considering the socio- demographic diversity observed at the subnational level in Argentina, the following research questions arise: Is there a relevant change in birth rates across Argentina's different national subdivisions during the pandemic? If so, were the subnational changes homogeneous or did they have a differential patter. An exploratory and descriptive investigation of a quantitative nature was proposed. Based on the current state of the issue, a series of comparative indicators on birth rates observed before and during the pandemic are defined and analyzed. These indicators are developed through various scenarios, mainly based on comparisons with previous data and probabilistic forecastsns?

Keywords: Fertility, Population, Shocks and Pandemics, Civil Registration and Vital Statistics, Small area estimation

See extended abstract.