Exploring discontinuities in life expectancy over time

Gianni Carboni, University of Sassari (Italy)
Giambattista Salinari, Università degli Studi di Sassari
Gustavo De Santis, University of Florence

This study examines the widespread deceleration in life expectancy growth across 26 European countries between 1970 and 2019. Using Segmented Regression, we identify structural breakpoints, revealing two key phases of deceleration: an earlier, lesser-known phase in the 1980s and 1990s, and a more pronounced one around 2011. Our results show that these decelerations are cross-sectional, affecting most countries simultaneously, which challenges the hypothesis of an approaching upper limit to human longevity. Females seem to be disproportionately affected during both phases. We also explore the potential link between the 2011 deceleration and the Great Recession by categorizing countries based on the recession's severity. Interestingly, countries most affected by the economic crisis experienced greater improvements in life expectancy than those with milder downturns, supporting the "Thomas Effect," which suggests (and justifies) a pro-cyclical relationship between economic crises and mortality trends.

Keywords: Mortality and Longevity, Health and Morbidity, Gender Dynamics, Economic Demography

See extended abstract.