The Generational Health Drift: Evidence from the British Birth Cohort Studies

Laura Gimeno, UCL University College London
Darío Moreno-Agostino, UCL Centre for Longitudinal Studies
Martin Danka, University College London
Yiling Guo, University College London
Alice Goisis, University College London
Jennifer B. Dowd, Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science, University of Oxford
George Ploubidis, UCL Centre for Longitudinal Studies

Improving health and care has been at the forefront of election campaigns and manifestos for decades, with political parties repeatedly pledging to improve GP waiting times, A&E response rates and access to social care. Declines in mortality have typically been associated with improvements in physical health across successive generations. While life expectancy in most high-income countries continues to increase, evidence from the British birth cohorts and longitudinal research suggests that more recently born generations are living longer, but in worse health. Younger generations are suffering from worse mental health, and a higher prevalence of diabetes, asthma, and obesity compared to older generations, even when these comparisons are made at the same age. This earlier onset and decline in general health is something we term “generational health drift” and has considerable consequences for population ageing and the economy. Given improvements in life expectancy over the 20th Century, increasing the number of years spent in good health is essential to supporting an ageing population. The observed trends of increased prevalence and earlier onset of chronic physical and mental ill-health reflect changes in social and environmental exposures and are therefore preventable.

Keywords: Health and Morbidity, Population Ageing, Mortality and Longevity, Longitudinal studies

See extended abstract.