Convergence in Family Patterns in India: Measuring the Role of Vital Demographic Components

Tapas Dey, International Institute for Population Sciences (IIPS)

The study investigates the changes in family patterns post 1990 and examines whether the nucleation of families is converging or diverging across fifteen major states of India; if so, measure the relative contribution of vital demographic components to it. The study utilized the panel data generated using multiple data sources, mainly from the Census of India, NFHS and SRS. Parametric and non-parametric econometrics models have been used to examine the convergence process. The results hint that, although the nuclear families are fast growing in the majority of south Indian states, other states are also not behind. The results of absolute ß-convergence reveal that the changes in family structure are converging for the entire period of 1991-2021 and for sub-periods. The conditional ß-convergence estimates also affirm the convergence hypothesis in the nucleation of families after controlling for state-level variations in total fertility rate, life expectancy at birth and urbanization. Kernel density plots further assert the convergence hypothesis in the nucleation of families in India. Furthermore, the rate decomposition analysis shows that the role of fertility contributes more to the increment of nuclear families across states in India, followed by marriage, migration and mortality, but with significant state-level heterogeneity.

Keywords: Families, Unions and Households, Fertility, Census data, Decomposition analysis

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