Projecting Future Temperature-Related Mortality in Europe under Global Climate Change

Rosanna Gualdi, Alma Mater Studiorum - Università di Bologna
Risto Conte Keivabu, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research (MPIDR)
Raya Muttarak, University of Bologna

Europe may experience a disproportionately greater mortality burden due to its higher proportion of older populations and rising temperatures. To date, there has been limited work exploring the implications of climate change on mortality outcomes under different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). This study examines the impact of future extreme temperatures on mortality across 28 European countries at NUTS3 level. We use a combination of historical data (2014-2023), climate projections based on Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5, RCP8.5), and SSPs to describe potential future socioeconomic development trajectories. We control for variables such as air pollution (PM2.5), urbanization, and GDP per capita. We employ a Poisson regression model with fixed effects to understand the temperature–mortality relationships, the SSP framework to assess future mortality accounting for population, and socioeconomic changes, and RCP to present projection on temperature. Our findings suggest cold-related mortality will decline as winters become milder, but it will continue to surpass heat-related mortality in many regions, particularly in areas with moderate cold temperatures. Furthermore, heat-related deaths are expected to rise significantly, especially in southern Europe, due to more frequent extreme heat events. A U-shaped relationship is founded between temperature and mortality.

Keywords: Population, Environment, and Climate Change, Mortality and Longevity

See extended abstract.