Educational differentials in having a second child in Europe before and after the Great Recession

Martin Klesment, Tallinn University
Allan Puur, Tallinn University

Educational attainment is often used as a key factor to explain the opportunities and constraints related to childbearing, particularly in relation to the economic cost of staying out of the labour market. Since the 2007-2008 economic downturn, fertility rates have declined in several European countries. Some studies suggest a narrowing of educational differences, with family sizes becoming more similar across groups. This raises the question of whether the educational gradient in fertility has shifted in the post-recession period compared to earlier trends. In this study, we analyse the transition to second birth in 27 European countries using combined longitudinal EU-SILC data, comparing the period before and after the 2007-2008 financial crisis. To determine whether variations in transition rates are due to timing (tempo) or quantum, we employ a mixture cure model. Our findings indicate that the previously observed U-shaped relationship between education and fertility has shifted towards a more positive gradient. Those with lower levels of education are now less likely to have a second child, while differences in birth timing across educational groups have diminished. These results support the idea that fertility patterns have become more homogeneous across educational groups in Europe since the recession.

Keywords: Fertility, Human Capital, Education, and Work, Quantum and tempo effects, Families, Unions and Households

See extended abstract.