Can Family Policies Influence the Transition to Parenthood in Turbulent Times?

Zsolt Speder, Hungarian Demographic Research Institute, Budapest
Lívia Murinkó, Hungarian Demographic Research Institute
Livia Olah, Stockholm University

Our analysis aims to examine the impact of family policies on becoming a parent in Hungary in 1985–2016. Our central question is whether we could expect family policy measures to promote childbearing at a time of profound changes in almost all areas of life. Using event-history analysis, we explore how individual and macro-level factors influenced first births. Family policy regimes are operationalised as policy periods. Two kinds of macro level factors are included in the analyse, namely economic circumstances (employment rate, inflation) and the and diffusion of late childbearing (estimated MAFB) Finally, we assume that family policy measures may operate differently across social groups. Family policies show a status-dependent effect. In 1995, the shift from universality to means-testing and the abolition of the earnings-related childcare allowance increased the costs of having children for many and led to a reduction in childbearing propensity among employed persons with vocational or secondary education. The probability of a first birth increased among employed people with secondary or tertiary education after 2002 and for non-employed women after 2010. Postponement reduced the probability of becoming a parent, on the other hand, in times of lower inflation and higher employment rates first births were more likely.

Keywords: Fertility, Population Policies

See paper.