Child Marriage, Climatic Factors and Physical Distance to School: Evidence from Survey Data in Kenya

Eunice Mueni Williams, University of Cambridge
Natalia Tejedor-Garavito, WorldPop, Department of Geography and Environmental Sciences, University of Southampton
Amy Bonnie, University of Southampton
Peter Dorey, University of Southampton
Rhorom Priyatikanto, University of Southampton
Andrew J. Tatem, University of Southampton
Carla Pezzulo, WorldPop, School of Geography and Environmental Science, University of Southampton

This study examines the relationship between climatic factors, physical access to school, and child marriage in Kenya. Utilising the latest two rounds of the Kenya Demographic and Health Survey; 2014 and 2022, combined with a surface of travel time to nearest school created by modelling freely available school locations, and average annual temperature, the study analysed the impact of average annual temperature and travel time to schools on the prevalence of child marriage. We used two-level multilevel models that incorporated women- and cluster-specific random effects and to allow testing for community level factors. Findings suggest a significant positive correlation between average temperature and the likelihood of child marriage, highlighting that climatic characteristics (high temperatures) are associated with higher risk of child marriage. Geographically, high temperatures and high child marriage cluster in the coastal and north-eastern counties of the country, depicting high-risk areas that need attention. Although national prevalence of child marriage decreased between 2014 and 2022, some sub counties were worse off in 2022, including Mandera East, Mandera North and Samburu North. Considering the growing threat of climatic variations, implementing strategies to mitigate climate change in vulnerable regions and population may reduce prevalence of child marriage in Kenya.

Keywords: Children, Adolescents, and Youth, Sexual and Reproductive Health and Rights, Multi-level modeling

See extended abstract.