The Effect of Temperature on Fertility: A Province-Level Analysis of Monthly Total Fertility Rates in Italy in 2003 – 2022

Melissa Barba, Department of Statistical Sciences - University of Bologna
Raya Muttarak, University of Bologna
Federica Querin, Alma Mater Studiorum University of Bologna

Climate change-induced temperature increases and extreme weather events are impacting human health and wellbeing. Warmer temperatures are reported to affect both reproductive health and behaviors, possibly reducing birth rates. In a low fertility context, the potential negative impact that climate change may have on fertility is consequential. This study focuses on Italy, a country characterized by low fertility and regional climate variability, suffering from the rising temperatures and severeness of meteorological extremes in the past years. Matching monthly birth registration data with E-OBS meteorological data, we analyze the relationship between heat exposure and age-specific fertility rates in 107 Italian provinces (corresponding to the NUTS-3 classification). Results show that exposure to extremely hot days, which are defined as days with a mean temperature above 30°C, has a relatively immediate impact on conception probabilities as it reduces the total fertility rate nine months later. From eleven to fifteen months after the shock, post-heat birth recuperation occurs. Colder days, on the other hand, do not show any significant relationships with fertility patterns.

Keywords: Fertility, Population, Environment, and Climate Change

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