How Low Might Fertility Go? Exploring Future Scenarios Based on Reproductive Intentions in South Korea, Spain and Uruguay

Teresa Martin Garcia, Spanish Council for Scientific Research
Wanda Cabella, Universidad de la República
Teresa Castro, CSIC
Ignacio Pardo, Universidad De La República
Joeun Kim, KDI School of Public Policy and Management
Young-Mi Kim, Yonsei University
Héctor Cebolla, CSIC

The total fertility rate (TFR) in Spain has been below 1.5 children per woman for nearly four decades, hovering around 1.3 children since 2011. In 2022, it fell to 1.16. That same year, the TFR in Korea was 0.81, declining further to 0.72 in 2023. From the mid-2010s onwards, Uruguay also experienced an extraordinarily steep drop in fertility. The TFR fell below replacement level for the first time in 2005, remained around 1.9 for a decade, and reached an historical low of 1.34 in 2022. Provisional data for 2023 point to a further drop to 1.28. This study focuses on these three countries, which currently share very low fertility levels but have markedly different historical trajectories, socio-economic and cultural contexts, and reproductive patterns (e.g., mean age at first birth, childlessness, nonmarital childbearing, unrealized fertility desires). We analyse reproductive ideals and intentions using recent comparable surveys from 2022, 2021, and 2018. Our findings highlight the differences and similarities in personal fertility ideals and short-time intentions to have a(nother) child for women and men across the three countries. In addition, the results identify sociodemographic profiles associated with the variability of these intentions and use this empirical information to inform short-term fertility projections.

Keywords: Fertility

See extended abstract.