Child Marriage in a Changing Climate: Evidence from Mali

Abbie Robinson, Pennsylvania State University
Brian Thiede, Pennsylvania State University

The social costs of environmental change are of global interest, as vulnerable populations respond to the impacts of changing climate.?Previous research has documented many demographic and economic impacts of climate shocks, but several socially important outcomes remain understudied. We address one of these gaps by examining the effects of precipitation variability on child marriage in Mali, a country where climatic events (e.g., droughts) are common and rates of child marriage are high. We draw on three decades (1986-2016) of marriage records from the Demographic Health Survey program (n=43,006 person-years), combined with high-resolution climate data, to measure the overall effects of precipitation exposure on the event of child marriage. We additionally evaluate differences by rural-urban residence, education, religion, and timing vis-à-vis a social policy that loosened marital restrictions. Overall climate effects across the sample are not statistically significant. However, the results suggest precipitation is negatively associated with early marriage among girls in rural areas. Additional tests for heterogeneity reveal variation in the influence of precipitation effects on the likelihood of child marriage by rural girls’ education and religion. These main findings provide evidence of the meaningful association between adverse precipitation and young girls’ risk of marrying before the age of 18.

Keywords: Children, Adolescents, and Youth, Population, Environment, and Climate Change, Gender Dynamics, Families, Unions and Households

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