Decomposing Trends in the Components of Unmet Need for Family Planning in Sub-Saharan Africa

Aasli Nur, University of Oxford
Sara Curran, University of Washington, Seattle

Nearly 1 in 4 women of reproductive age are estimated to have an unmet need for family planning in Sub-Saharan Africa, the largest proportion of any region globally. Yet, trends in unmet need are less aligned with observed fertility trends, relative to other regions, indicating potential issues with the measurement of fertility preferences and family planning behaviors in Sub-Saharan Africa. This study seeks to address the complex reasons for a lack of close correspondence in the population measures by unpacking the compositional trends in the components of unmet need and population composition of women of reproductive age in 16 African countries. Using an extension of the Blinder-Oaxaca technique, we perform two decompositions using logit model estimates to study changes in women’s behavior (contraceptive non-use) and preferences (desire to avoid or postpone childbearing) over time. We find that changes in the population composition, particularly the growing number of young women aged 15-24, have a strong effect on the change in fertility preferences over time, driving the summary measure to a greater extent than changes in family planning behavior. These findings represent a critical first step in diagnosing possible measurement concerns and identifying anomalies in patterned behaviors and preferences warranting further study.

Keywords: Family Planning and Contraception, Decomposition analysis, Fertility, Data and Methods

See extended abstract.