The Anthropocene Crisis: Does Resolution Lie in Depopulation?

Anass Barrahmoune, University of Sheffield
Peter Matanle, University of Sheffield

Humanity's deepening strain on Earth's systems has sparked widespread discussion of an "Anthropocene crisis," often attributed to overpopulation. This raises the question: if overpopulation underpins the crisis, does its resolution lie in depopulation? Here, we examine the effects of Japan’s ongoing depopulation on the nexus of population, economy, land use, food, water, and energy. We take a systematic Bayesian approach to examine changes in the strength and direction of causality among these variables and explore plausible future pathways under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways scenarios. We find that, while depopulation has led to notable reductions in resource demand, especially for water and energy, the impact on the food system is more complex due to its interdependencies with economic and other factors beyond population change. We argue that these shifts fall short of yielding immediate and tangible environmental outcomes, and it may take significantly longer for the depopulation dividends to materialize at a scale that could meaningfully contribute to addressing the crisis. We contend that depopulation alone cannot resolve the crisis, and that proactive efforts to reshape consumption patterns and make fundamental shifts in societal norms and values are necessary to capitalize on the potential dividends of this demographic shift.

Keywords: Population, Environment, and Climate Change, Population and Development, Bayesian methods

See extended abstract.