The Ripples of Loss: Estimating the Bereaved Population Due to Conflict Deaths and Enforced Disappearances in Colombia

Enrique Acosta, Centre for Demographic Studies
Diego Alburez-Gutierrez, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research
Maria Gargiulo, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine
Catalina Torres, Facultad de Ciencias Sociales Universidad de la República, Uruguay

This study estimates the population in Colombia bereaved by the loss of relatives due to conflict deaths and enforced disappearances during the Colombian Armed Conflict (CAC) from 1985 to 2018. Using data from the Colombian Truth Commission and the National Statistics Office (DANE), we quantify how conflict-related deaths and disappearances affect extended family members, aiming to shed light on the cumulative bereavement experienced by the population. We estimate that approximately 732,739 people were killed, and 139,221 forcibly disappeared, with significant underreporting. This translates to over 40% of the Colombian population in 2018 having lost at least one relative, either in the nuclear or extended family, due to the conflict. Our analysis emphasizes the social impact of these losses on collective memory, proposing that such bereavement events shape how communities remember the conflict. We also focus on key life stages, highlighting the profound consequences of parental loss during childhood and child loss during old age. By combining demographic models and sociological theory, we aim to understand the role of kinship loss in shaping collective memory and reconciliation efforts in post-conflict Colombia. The study is a novel approach to estimating violent conflict's demographic and social impact on kinship structures.

Keywords: Population, Shocks and Pandemics, Mortality and Longevity, Data and Methods, Health and Morbidity

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