Mapping Vulnerability to Climate Change: A Census-Based Approach to Typhoon Risk Assessment in the Philippines

Anna Amalia Vibar
Elma Laguna, University of the Philippines Diliman
Jose Andres Ignacio, University of the Philippines Diliman
Sabine J. F. Henry, University of Namur
Sebastien Dujardin, University of Namur

Disaster risk management has become increasingly critical with climate change, especially due to more frequent and severe typhoons, exacerbated by limited resources for recovery in some countries. Identifying the most vulnerable population to typhoon risk, through reliable and accessible census-based indicators, is essential to improving preparedness and response efforts. This study develops a typhoon vulnerability index (TVI) for the Philippines and maps the most vulnerable communities at the national scale by analysing social vulnerability indicators from the 2020 census and applying using linear regression to loss and damage data from Typhoons Rai (Odette) in 2021 and Goni (Rolly) in 2020. Preliminary analysis of Typhoon Rai shows that 7 out of 18 census-based indicators are significantly associated with reported damage. Notably, areas with more female-headed households exhibit reduced vulnerability, emphasizing the critical role women play in disaster response in the Philippines. When comparing the TVIs of both typhoons, we expect to validate key indicators and strengthen findings on vulnerable areas, despite differences in intensity and path. By enhancing vulnerability maps, this study contributes to a more systematic identification of at-risk populations early, guiding targeted interventions before another disaster strikes and contributes to disaster management by demonstrating the value of social vulnerability indicators.

Keywords: Population, Environment, and Climate Change, Census data, Geo-referenced/geo-coded data

See extended abstract.