More than 10 Years of Declining French Fertility in the European Context of Low Fertility. What Recent Census Microdata Tells Us

Didier Breton, Unistra / Ined
Sandra Florian, Institut National d'Études Démographiques (INED)
John Tomkinson, Université de Lille

Throughout the last decades, France has exhibited one of the highest fertility rates in Western Europe, having a TFR close to replacement level. However, births rates in France have been steadily declining since 2010. The French TFR has dropped from 2.03 children per woman in 2010 to 1.68 in 2023. Although part of this decline was initially due to a continuing trend of childbearing postponement, recent observations suggest that a recuperation of birth rates at older ages may be increasingly unlikely. Childlessness has been slightly, but steadily raising for all age groups, and this increase has accelerated since 2016. The proportion of childless women in cohabiting couples in the 35-39 age group increased from 21.0% in 2011 to 22.4% in 2021. This study aims to measure the evolution of French fertility by parity in recent cohorts and identify the demographic groups that continue postponing childbearing. Our hypothesis is that the French fertility model is converging towards the two-child family model, after years of strong resistance. We evaluate whether this decline is driven by most educated women, or whether it is a pervasive behavior across all educational levels

Keywords: Census data, Data and Methods, Families, Unions and Households, Human Capital, Education, and Work

See extended abstract.