Factors Affecting Changes in Elderly Life Expectancy

LI Mei, Xi’an Physical Education University
Xiaohui Fan, Changqing Oilfield

Background: The social and economic development across various regions in China is uneven, leading to disparities in residents' health status due to differing economic levels and public health resources. Analyzing how social and economic development, medical standards, and other external factors affect life expectancy changes in these regions enhances our understanding of population aging. Method: This paper used the census data, the China Statistical Yearbook, and the China Population and Employment Statistical Yearbook in 1982, 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2020. The dynamic spatial Durbin model analyzed the factors affecting the life expectancy of the elderly population. Results: The elderly life expectancy in each Chinese province depends on both time and space. The spatial econometric model offers a more effective quantitative analysis of the factors influencing this life expectancy compared to traditional statistical methods. Comparing the spatial panel measurement models of different states, the dynamic spatial Durbin model is more suitable. We found that the direct effects of aging, urbanization level, education level, medical level, and economic development promote the increase of life expectancy among the elderly population in this region, while the indirect effect of urbanization level inhibits the increase of life expectancy among the elderly population in other regions.

Keywords: Mortality and Longevity, Population Ageing, Spatial Demography

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