Trends in Cohort Fertility Level in China

Tian Wang, Xi'an Jiaotong University
Quanbao Jiang, Institute for Population and development Studies, Xi'an Jiaotong University

Based on a nationally representative data and from a cohort perspective, this paper calculates the age-specific number of children ever born (CEB) by birth cohort, analyzes the postponement and recuperation of fertility, calculates parity progression ratio and decomposes the changes in the number of CEB at given ages. The results show that there is a decreasing trend in the number of CEB. The older the age at first marriage or first birth, the fewer children were ever born. The postponement of the first childbirth deepens among women in later birth cohorts. The decline in the number of CEB in later birth cohorts is mostly driven by reductions in the progression ratios to first birth. The decline of fertility among urban, higher educated women is mostly attributable to the reduction in the progression ratios to first birth; while the decline of fertility among rural, less educated women is attributable to the reduction in the progression ratios to third birth. The contribution of the age-specific conditional probability of first birth to the change of CEB becomes larger in later birth cohorts. The contribution of changes in educational structure to the decreasing of the number of CEB increases in later birth cohorts.

Keywords: Fertility, Decomposition analysis

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