Classifying Unmarried Individuals in Japan: The Intersection of Economic Base, Intimacy Base, and Marriage Desirability

Miho Iwasawa, National Institute of Population and Social Security Research
Shohei Yoda, National Institute of Population and Social Security Research

To reassess the circumstances of the never-married and how they have changed over time, this paper categorizes the never-married population aged 25-34 into four distinct types, based on their economic base (regular employment/self-employment), intimacy base (having a romantic partner), and intention to marry, which reflects their perception of marriage desirability. We use nationally representative surveys conducted between 1982 and 2021. The never-married individuals were categorized into four groups: “precursor,” “emancipation,” “deprivation,” and “withdrawal”, with notable educational differences observed. The increase in the number of never-married people since the 1980s began with an increase in "precursor," which is characterized by the possession of two bases and the intention to marry (postponed marriage). Since the 1990s there has been an increase in "deprivation" due to a lack of economic base. Since 2010, the number of individuals classified as "withdrawal" -- those lacking both economic and intimacy bases, and with no intention to marry -- has risen sharply, contributing to the increase in the unmarried population around 2020. By educational background, the percentage of “withdrawal” was higher among those with a high school education or less, for both men and women.

Keywords: Families, Unions and Households, Inequality, Disadvantage and Discrimination, Children, Adolescents, and Youth, Fertility

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