Do Environmental Events Trigger Seasonal Migration from Rural Areas? Evidence from a National Representative Survey in India.

Manish Mamgai, International Institute for Population Sciences (IIPS)
Kunal Keshri, International Institute for Population Sciences, Mumbai

Seasonal migration constitutes a pivotal livelihood strategy for rural households in developing nations, such as India, due to the cyclical nature of agricultural employment and limited non-farm opportunities. Besides, short term and long-term migration, a large section of people migrate for seasonal work to other parts of the country in India, particularly during the off-farm season. The intensifying frequency and severity of hydro-climatic events, exacerbated by climate change, have heightened the vulnerabilities of agriculture-dependent households, making seasonal migration an increasingly indispensable component of rural livelihoods. This study investigates the role of environmental events in triggering seasonal migration from rural areas. It uses the Indian Human Development Survey, it examines the association between household-level environmental shocks and the likelihood of seasonal migration across various socio-economic background characteristics Findings reveal a higher propensity for seasonal migration in the presence of environmental events, with disadvantaged populations exhibiting a particularly strong inclination to migrate. The study underscores the critical role of environmental factors, as the likelihood of migration is significantly amplified in the face of such shocks. These insights contribute to a deeper understanding of the relationship between environmental change and migration dynamics.

Keywords: Population, Environment, and Climate Change

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