Cartel Drug War and Family Dynamics in Mexico

Alfonso Carballo, NEOMA Business School
Luca Maria Pesando, New York University Abu Dhabi
Fernanda Sobrino Macias, Tecnológico de Monterrey

The relentless surge of violence stemming from the “Drug War” in Mexico has resulted in staggering homicide rates and violence in recent years. This study explores whether and how the presence, modus operandi, and timing of entry of drug-trafficking organizations within a municipality affect dynamics of births, marital outcomes, and divorce patterns in 2,402 municipalities in Mexico, spanning the years from 2000 to 2020. We adopt a novel methodology for identifying the presence and type of drug-trafficking organizations within Mexican municipalities, leveraging web scraping applied to Google News and employing natural language processing techniques. Findings suggest that when drug-trafficking organizations vie for control within a municipality, their impact is distinctly pronounced, resulting in a decline in birth and marriage rates, coupled with an upsurge in divorce rates. Conversely, when these organizations establish a regional monopoly, we observe no discernible association with demographic variables. Quasi-experimental estimates suggest that timing of entry matters, showing an increase in divorces and an increase in births among disadvantaged mothers, while no consistent effect on marriages. Findings have important implications for demographic dynamics, underscoring the enduring relevance and far-reaching consequences of the Drug War in Mexico for years to come.

Keywords: Spatial Demography, Families, Unions and Households, Fertility, Computational social science methods

See paper.