Adult Mortality Differentials and Regional Development at the Local Level in Brazil

Everton E. C. Lima, Universidade Estadual de Campinas (UNICAMP)
Marcos Gonzaga, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte (UFRN)
Flavio Freire, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte
Bernardo L. Queiroz, centro de desenvolvimento e planejamento regional

Brazil's profound regional social inequality raises questions regarding its impact on adult mortality and data quality. While the quality of mortality data has improved in recent decades, significant regional disparities persist in death registration completeness and mortality levels. This study examines the spatial and temporal trends of adult mortality in Brazil's small regions from 1980 to 2010. We analyze their connections with socioeconomic and public health advancements, assessing whether adult mortality rates exhibit convergence or divergence. Utilizing mortality data and census information, we employ spatial autoregressive models to explore the relationship between adult mortality, socioeconomic factors, and public health measures across 558 microregions. Our findings highlight social inequality as a key determinant of regional disparities in adult mortality. Male adult mortality demonstrates sensitivity to unemployment and wealth inequality, exhibiting a considerable increase towards the inland areas of Brazil, likely attributable to rising violence and homicides associated with organized crime. Socioeconomic disparities emerge as the primary drivers of variation in adult mortality within the country, with the potential to become the leading explanation for differences in life expectancy.

Keywords: Small area estimation, Civil Registration and Vital Statistics, Spatial Demography, Mortality and Longevity

See paper.

  Presented in Session 26. Measuring Mortality with Civil Registration Data in Low and Middle-Income Countries