Accounting for Dependencies between Fertility and Mortality in Population Projections

Ever Hughes, University of Toronto
Monica Alexander, University of Toronto
Radu Craiu, University of Toronto

Fertility and mortality outcomes are intrinsically linked, both at the individual and population level. However, methods of population projection generally do not consider these dependencies. This project investigates ways to carry out population projection accounting for these dependencies. In particular, we use copula models to account for the correlation between fertility and mortality in the past, and account for these correlations in the projection of the components of population change. Preliminary testing focusing on Sub Saharan African countries suggests that accounting for these dependencies could either increase or decrease the projected population size compared to WPP estimates, depending on the implied differences in the age structure of fertility.

Keywords: Population projections, forecasts, and estimations, Bayesian methods , Fertility, Mortality and Longevity

See extended abstract.