Post-Migration Fertility Disruptions among Syrian Refugee Women in Turkey

Seda Yumlu, Hacettepe University Institute of Population Studies
Ismet Koç, Hacettepe University Institute of Population Studies

This study examines changes in fertility-related trajectories of Syrian refugee women in Turkey and identifies key risk factors influencing these changes in the post-migration period. It focuses on the disruption hypothesis, exploring how conflict-induced migration has affected marriage and childbearing patterns among Syrian refugees. Using the 2018 Turkey Demographic and Health Survey and the same survey’s Syrian Migrant Sample, this research employs multiple linear regression (MLR) to analyze the timing of first marriage and first birth according to migration, first analyzing data for all Syrian refugee women, then comparing women in pre- and post-migration periods. Additionally, adjusted fertility rates are calculated using a technique suggested by Bongaarths and Feeney (1998; 2000) to eliminate the tempo effect on fertility. Preliminary findings indicate that Syrian refugee women experience delays in marriage and childbirth in the post-migration period. The mean age at childbearing—an indicator of delayed childbearing— increases to 28 years during the conflict period (2013-2015), but drops to 26.3 after migrating to Turkey, in the post-conflict period (2016-2018). Factors such as age, duration of stay, regions, age at first marriage and usage of contraception were also found to be significant in age at first birth among Syrian refugee women in the post-migration period.

Keywords: Migrant Populations and Refugees, Quantum and tempo effects, Fertility, International Migration

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