Will the Inhabitants of Small Island Developing States Become Climate Exiles?

Gil Bellis, Institut National d'Études Démographiques (INED)
Jean-François Léger, Université Paris 1-Panthéon Sorbonne, Institut de démographie
Alain Parant, Institut National d'Études Démographiques (INED)
Ankit Sikarwar, University of Minnesota

The 58 Small Island Developing States (SIDS) are considered vulnerable due to the risks of exposure to environmental upheavals linked to climate change. This paper presents the characteristics of SIDS and the risks faced by their populations in the context of climate change. SIDS are distributed across three geographical regions: the Caribbean, the Pacific and the AIMS. These 58 States have a surface area of 1.193 million km2 and a maritime area of 35 million km2. In 2023, the SIDS had a population of 74 million. The Caribbean zone is the most populous, ahead of the Pacific and AIMS zones. In 2050, the population of the SIDS could reach 87.3 million, an increase of 12.9 million. Over the period 2031-2050, it is estimated that global warming could average + 1.6°C, and by 2100 the average rise in sea level could be between + 0.43 and + 0.84 metres. This would have two consequences: changes in the areas occupied by coastal wetlands and the risk of partial or total submergence of land areas. Faced with these perils, some SIDS have already envisaged a partial transfer or even a total diaspora of their population to other host countries.

Keywords: Population, Environment, and Climate Change, Population projections, forecasts, and estimations, Population and Development, Migrant Populations and Refugees

See extended abstract.