Trends of Proportion Never Married for Chinese Women: Based on Cohort Analysis

Yun Li, Institue for Population and Development Studies, Xi'an Jiaotong University
Quanbao Jiang, Institute for Population and development Studies, Xi'an Jiaotong University

This paper calculate the age-specific proportion of women never married and the differences between urban-rural areas, and educational levels; analyzes the situation of marriage postponement and recuperation; examines the impact of changes in the age-specific never marriage conditional probability on changes in the age-specific proportion never married; and predicts the proportion of lifelong never married women; the effects of changes in educational structure on changes in the age-specific proportion never married were analyzed; and the tempo effect on the period never marriage rate was measured. The results of the study show that: women in the late-born cohort, with higher education, and living in urban areas are more likely to delay marriage and the recuperation of marriage is weakened at higher ages; the contribution of the decrease in the first marriage conditional probability in the late-born cohort to the proportion of lifelong never married is increased at a lower age; the prediction results show that the proportion of lifelong never married is elevated in the 1987 cohort; and the contribution of changes in the educational structure of the late-born cohort to the overall change in proportion never married increases; the tempo effect gradually increases influence on the period never marriage rate.

Keywords: Decomposition analysis, Quantum and tempo effects

See extended abstract.