What Are the Projected Effects of Climate Change on Population Dynamics in Portugal?

Rita Chaves Costa, institute of social sciences - university of lisbon

This research examines the projected effects of climate change, integrating demographic and geographic perspectives to assess potential future shifts on population dynamics in Portugal. Using a multi-dimensional approach, the study aims to investigate the primary impacts on fertility, mortality, and migration through extensive literature reviews and analysis of census and administrative data at NUTS III level. By generating population projections that incorporate educational attainment and other critical sociodemographic factors, this research seeks to provide a nuanced understanding of how climate-induced changes could reshape population structures and spatial distributions by 2060. The outputs, including a series of thematic dashboards and policy recommendations, aim to enhance public and policymaker awareness and facilitate informed decision-making in response to evolving climate scenarios.

Keywords: Population, Environment, and Climate Change, Population projections, forecasts, and estimations, Spatial Demography, Data visualisation

See extended abstract.