What Are the Conditions to a Silver Dividend in Latin America and Africa?

Anderson Fernandes, CEDEPLAR - Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais
Bernardo L. Queiroz, centro de desenvolvimento e planejamento regional

In the last decades, countries around the world have experienced profound changes in the age structure of populations (Lee 2003). The aging process modifies the levels of dependency and has some economic implications that can be discussed under the perspective of the demographic dividends. Particularly, the labor force participation of older adults can constitute a silver dividend (Matsukura et al, 2018, Scott 2023). This theme is especially relevant in low- and middle-income countries that experience rapid demographic changes and high levels of social inequalities. This paper aims to assess the conditions under which the silver dividend would be constituted in selected Latin American and African countries. We use census data, available at IPUMS, from Latin American and African countries listed on the NTA project. We conducted simulations using regression models to examine the effects of changes in the labor force's educational composition. Preliminary results show that the advantages of higher education induce higher levels of labor force participation rates among older adults, indicating a potential silver dividend in the selected countries. However, the pattern is not unique across countries and differences can be explained by other sociodemographic dynamics.

Keywords: Economic Demography, Human Capital, Education, and Work, Population Ageing, Inequality, Disadvantage and Discrimination

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