Addressing Hong Kong SAR’s Lowest-low Fertility: The rising role of migrants and the impact of COVID-19

Nancy Ling Sze Leung, Nippon Sport Science University

The total fertility rate of Hong Kong SAR fell to a historic low of 0.7 in 2022, exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic. While previous studies have focused on delayed pregnancies and economic uncertainties as factors contributing to fertility decline, these analyses often overlook the critical role of migrants. In Hong Kong, fertility rates are affected by a unique legal and immigration context, where birthright citizenship has significantly influenced birth tourism and the inclusion of children born to non-resident Chinese nationals. During the pandemic, strict border closures and social restrictions severely impacted marriage and birth rates, particularly among cross-boundary couples (Hong Kong residents married to mainland Chinese citizens) and migrant populations. The number of marriages fell sharply as wedding ceremonies were postponed, and migration restrictions prevented cross-boundary couples from reuniting. Additionally, policies to attract highly skilled and investment migrants were disrupted, further reducing birth rates from these groups. This study highlights the need to recognize the significant impact of COVID-19 policies on fertility beyond the commonly discussed factors of postponed births and economic uncertainty. The fertility decline in Hong Kong during the pandemic underscores the importance of considering the roles of migrants and cross-boundary families in future demographic policies and strategies.

Keywords: Fertility, Population, Shocks and Pandemics, International Migration

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