The Fertility Decline in Argentina 2010-2022. Analysis of Fertility Differentials at the Provincial Level

Sofia Muhafra, Universidad Nacional de Luján
Maria Florencia Bathory, Institut national d'études démographiques (INED)/EDSD
Carlos O. Grushka, Superintendencia de AFJP

In the intercensal period 2010 to 2022, Argentina experienced important demographic changes, in particular a sharp decline in fertility after a long period of stagnation. Although Argentina started its demographic transition early, with a rapid decline in fertility compared to other Latin American countries, there was considerable heterogeneity within the country. The Pampa region showed lower fertility levels due to European immigration in the late 19th and early 20th centuries, while Patagonia and Cuyo began their fertility decline later, between 1914 and 1947. The northern regions did not begin this transition until the 1970s. Since the second half of the 20th century, the fertility decline has slowed down, with periods of stagnation and even slight increases in some provinces, reflecting differences between jurisdictions. However, since the mid-2010s, fertility levels in Argentina have declined rapidly, and in 2018 they were below the replacement level, reaching low fertility levels. This study analyses the fertility decline in the period 2010-2022 and its provincial variations, using data on births, population projections and the 2022 National Census of Population, Housing and Habitation.

Keywords: Fertility, Sexual and Reproductive Health and Rights, Family Planning and Contraception, Civil Registration and Vital Statistics

See extended abstract.