Conflict, Casualties, and Care: Impact of Conflict Mortality on the Gendered Burden of Support

Yvette Young, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research (MPIDR)
Enrique Acosta, Centre for Demographic Studies
Diego Alburez-Gutierrez, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research
Emilio Zagheni, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research (MPIDR)

Among contemporary studies of armed conflict and mortality, attention to the downstream effects on population structures, particularly dependency ratios and their implications after war, is lacking. Using data from the United Nations’ World Population Prospects, we estimate war-related mortality incurred in current high-intensity conflicts and project the impact of this mortality on the gender distribution of dependent and supportive populations. We begin by analyzing Palestine, a low-migration conflict context. Our study will extend this analysis to compare changes to the dependency ratio in Palestine with those in other conflict contexts, such as Ukraine and Ethiopia. Our preliminary findings show that conflict-related deaths in Palestine increase the reliance of dependent child and older adult populations on women. The increased burden of support implies heightened levels of stress and elevated risk of stress-related physical and mental disease among the predominantly female, supportive population. Increasing care burdens for one population segment (such as women of working age) may also result in declines in the volume or quality of care and support provided to the dependent population. As a result, the implications of changes to the population structure, especially to gender-disaggregated dependency ratios, are far-reaching for the health and continuity of the entire population.

Keywords: Population projections, forecasts, and estimations, Mortality and Longevity, Gender Dynamics

See extended abstract.