Conflict-Induced Migration Research: Evidence to Support Policy?

Jorge Mancilla, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
Barbara Entwisle, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill

Generalizations to inform policy regarding conflict-induced migration within and across countries are based, in part, on the research literature. However, whether and how well that research literature represents social conflicts in different times and places is an open question. We address this question through a systematic review of 85 quantitative studies of violent social conflict and migration published in 2022 or earlier in peer-review journals that met our selection criteria. To compare the representation of countries and conflicts in these studies with data drawn from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP) Georeferenced Event Dataset, we focus on case studies (single or multiple) with observation periods that end after 1989, the beginning of the UCDP data. We find that while violent social conflict was common between 1989 and 2021, only a minority (21%) of the countries that experienced conflict events in their territory are represented in the sample. Country characteristics such as conflict-related deaths, GDP per capita, and being in the Global South positively predict conflict representation in the literature. The under-representation of certain conflict settings could result in inappropriate generalizations about population responses to conflict and in failures to recognize conflict-induced population movements, particularly those originating in the Global North.

Keywords: Migrant Populations and Refugees, International Migration, Internal Migration and Urbanization, Data and Methods

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