Exploring the Impact of Economic Expectations on Depression in South Africa: A Longitudinal Study

Thembelihle Q. Luthuli, University of Kwazulu-Natal

This study investigates the relationship between depressive symptoms and future economic expectations in South Africa using longitudinal data from the National Income Dynamics Study (NIDS). The research employs fixed-effects logistic regression to explore how changes in economic expectations influence depressive symptoms over time, controlling for time-invariant individual characteristics. Initial results indicate that individuals with higher economic expectations are less likely to experience depressive symptoms, with the relationship being particularly strong among older individuals. Additionally, poor perceived health is associated with significantly higher odds of depression. These findings suggest that economic optimism plays a protective role against depression, especially for vulnerable populations, and underscore the importance of addressing both mental health and socioeconomic empowerment in South Africa. The study contributes valuable insights to the design of interventions aimed at promoting mental health and economic well-being, aligning with the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) agenda.

Keywords: Health and Morbidity, Longitudinal studies , Economic Demography, Population and Development

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