Mortality at Ages 25-49 Years in the United Kingdom, Its Constituent Parts and Regions Relative to Other High Income Countries: Negative Trends and Rising Mortality from Drugs

David A. Leon, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM)
Dmitri A. Jdanov, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research
Naomi Medina-Jaudes, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine
Inna Danilova, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research (MPIDR)
Vladimir M. M. Shkolnikov, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research (MPIDR)

We examine trends in total (1970-2023) and cause-specific (2001-2021) mortality among people aged 25-49 years in the UK relative to a set of 21 other high-income countries using national and sub-national mortality data. Ages 25 to 49 years emerge as a hot spot on the heatmap of relative mortality. We consider trends in age-standardized mortality rates (ASDRs) in this age group for all causes and selected causes of death focusing on contrasts between the UK and the median values for the comparator countries. Between 1970 and the mid-1990s, all-cause mortality rates (25-49 years) in the UK were appreciably lower than the comparator median for men and at a similar level for women. From 2000, the relative position of the UK deteriorated due to steeper relative declines in the comparator rate, and an absolute increase in rates in most parts of the UK since 2012. Divergent trends between the UK and the comparator median were determined by external causes. Drug-related deaths were particularly important due to steep increases in the 2010s. In 2019, drug-related mortality in Scotland was similar to that in the USA. By the very nature of these causes, the corresponding excess deaths and lifetime losses are avoidable.

Keywords: Mortality and Longevity, Decomposition analysis, Geo-referenced/geo-coded data

See paper.