Educational Attainment and Socioeconomic Status in Fertility Transitions: A Comparative Cohort Study of Mexico and Peru, 1940-1980

Maria Eugenia Cosio Zavala, El Colegio de Mexico
Robin Cavagnoud, Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú (PUCP)

This presentation examines the fertility transition in Mexico and Peru through a cohort analysis of women born between 1940’ and 1980’, focusing on educational and socioeconomic differentials. We utilize data from Demographic and Health Surveys in Peru (1986-2022) and Demographic Retrospective Surveys (EDER) in Mexico (2011 and 2017). Our comparative longitudinal approach explores how education levels and socioeconomic status have shaped fertility patterns over time in both countries. We analyze cohort fertility rates, parity progression ratios, and timing of key life events, calculating refined measures of fertility including birth order distributions and median ages at reproductive milestones. Our findings reveal that higher education consistently correlates with lower fertility rates and later childbearing across all socioeconomic groups, but the effect's magnitude varies by social class. Women from lower socioeconomic backgrounds tend to have higher fertility rates, even with increased education. We observe convergence in sexual debut timing across educational groups in recent cohorts, but divergence in age at first union and birth, further stratified by socioeconomic status. These patterns highlight the persistent influence of both education and social class on reproductive behaviors, providing nuanced insights into the multifaceted dynamics of fertility transitions and its subnational heterogeneity in Latin America.

Keywords: Longitudinal studies , Comparative methods , Inequality, Disadvantage and Discrimination

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