To What Extent Limiting Long Standing Health Conditions Explain Poverty Entry Rates in Europe? Longitudinal Comparative Population Level Analysis

Aapo Hiilamo, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research (MPIDR)

Health conditions increase the risk of transitioning into economic difficulties and poverty but country-comparative evidence on this health selection is limited. Country-comparative evidence can highlight groups most affected and pinpoint policy environments that mitigate health selection. We examine the association of the onset of LL health conditions with subsequent poverty entry in 24 European countries, using EU-SILC data from 2004-2022. We focus on adults aged 18-64 and use both objective poverty (income below 60% of the country median) and subjective poverty (household making ends meet with great difficulty) as outcome measures. We fit country and subgroup stratified adjusted logistic regression models and calculate risk ratios and population attributable risks (population impact) from the predicted values. Preliminary analyses indicate that an onset of limiting health conditions increases only marginally, and in many countries insignificantly, the risk of objective poverty entry but the association with subjective poverty entry is more substantial. The population impact on subjective poverty is the largest in Eastern and Southern European countries and the smallest in Northern European countries with social insurance systems to offset income losses due to health conditions. These findings are relevant for European policymakers interested in poverty reduction strategies.

Keywords: Inequality, Disadvantage and Discrimination, Families, Unions and Households, Health and Morbidity, Economic Demography

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