Post-Disaster Transitions and Trajectories of Step-Wise, Stage and Return Migration

Sara Ronnkvist, University of Wisconsin-Madison
Jack DeWaard, University of Minnesota, Twin Cities
Stephan Whitaker, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
Katherine J. Curtis, University of Wisconsin-Madison
Elizabeth Fussell, Brown University

In recent years, environmental migration has been of great interest to policymakers and researchers given the large influence of migration on demographic change in the US. Existing work has documented post-disaster in- and out-migration, with the extent and direction varying across socio-demographic groups. However, questions remain about post disaster migration trajectories of individuals and the implications for return migration. In this study, we adapt multistate life table methods to analyze migration trajectories in the 5 years following the largest hurricane, wildfire, and tornado events from 1999 to 2022 in the US using uniquely detailed quarterly residential history data from the Consumer Credit Panel (CCP). We first compare these post disaster migration trajectories to each other to understand how migration may vary across hazard type and geographic context. We then compare these trajectories to general migration trends to understand how increases in environmental hazards may shape communities. Finally, we consider how post disaster migration trajectories may vary across age groups and prior migration status to see how overall patterns may vary across demographic groups. Our study will provide further insights into the temporal dimensions of post disaster migration and highlight potential heterogeneity across hazards and demographic subgroups.

Keywords: Population, Environment, and Climate Change, Internal Migration and Urbanization, Mathematical demography , Longitudinal studies

See extended abstract.