An Analysis of the Modal Lifespan by Leading Causes of Death in Resource-Poor Settings of Sub-Sahara Africa and South Asia: Findings from Health and Socio-Demographic Surveillance Systems

Jean Juste Harrisson Bashingwa, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg
Francesc Xavier Gomez-Olive, University of the Witwatersrand
Kathleen Khan, University of the Witwatersrand
Stephen Tollman, University of the Witwatersrand
Tobias Chirwa, University of the Witwatersrand
Chodziwadziwa Kabudula, University of the Witwatersrand

Introduction: Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia face high premature mortality rates, often overlooked by traditional life expectancy metrics. This study uses the modal age at death (M) to analyze trends and patterns on mortality, focusing on non-communicable diseases, cardiometabolic diseases, and infectious diseases like HIV. Methods: Data from 18 Health and Demographic Surveillance Systems (HDSS) across 11 countries were analyzed. The InterVA model determined causes of death, and P-spline methodology estimated the modal age at death. Results: From 2000 to 2021, significant regional disparities were observed. South Asia showed a decline in cardiovascular mortality but increased neonatal mortality among females. Southern Africa experienced rising female mortality from cardiovascular diseases and HIV/AIDS. West Africa saw increased male mortality from infectious diseases, while East Africa exhibited diverse health challenges, with notable increases in neoplasm-related mortality in some areas. The modal age at death trends highlighted the effectiveness of healthcare interventions and revealed persistent gender disparities. Conclusion: Continuous mortality surveillance is crucial for informing health policy. Regional disparities highlight the need for targeted interventions. Improvements in some regions demonstrate the potential of comprehensive health initiatives. Future research should address socioeconomic factors to enhance health systems in resource-poor settings.

Keywords: Mortality and Longevity, Population Ageing

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