Educational Mismatch on Both Ends: A Sequence Analysis of Labor Trajectories of South-South Migration in Montevideo

Julieta Bengochea, Programa de Población, Facultad de Ciencias Sociales, Universidad de la República
Victoria Prieto Rosas, Universidad de la República, Uruguay
Mariana Fernandez Soto, Universidad de la Republica

Educational mismatch is a well-documented issue among newly arrived refugee and migrant populations, and research mainly focuses on cross-sectional analysis, paying little attention to labor trajectories before migration. However, examining labor trajectories at origin and path dependency in explaining outcomes regarding educational mismatch at the destination is of utmost importance in segmented labor markets involving south-south migration flows. To this end, we use retrospective labor trajectory data to examine the persistence of educational (mis)match from the origin to the destination, using data from the 2018 Ethnosurvey on Recent Immigration for Dominican, Peruvian, and Venezuelan migrants residing in Montevideo. We apply sequence analysis techniques, including optimal matching and Ward clustering, to identify predominant educational (mis)match trajectories at the origin and the destination. Our findings suggest educational mismatches at both ends. Overeducation after migration is often observed among those with long-term matching or out-of-labour-force backgrounds but can also follow prior overeducation backgrounds from origin. Likewise, undereducation trajectories at origin can be overcome or persist post-migration. Cluster analysis of these trajectories indicates stability and limited occupational mobility at both ends. This paper contributes to further studies on the life course impacts of migration, with a special focus on mobility across segmented labor markets.

Keywords: Migrant Populations and Refugees, Human Capital, Education, and Work, International Migration, Population Policies

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