Trends and patterns in Incidence, Prevalence, and Mortality of Mental Disorders in India (1990-2021) through Age-Period-Cohort and Joinpoint Regression Analysis

Neha Shri, International Institute for Population Sciences (IIPS)

To examine the long-term trends in the incidence, prevalence, and mortality of mental disorders in India from 1990 to 2021 with a focus on age, period, and cohort effects.We utilized Joinpoint regression and age-period-cohort analysis on age-standardized incidence, prevalence, and mortality rates of mental disorders from 1990-2021. Joinpoint regression analysis revealed that age-standardized prevalence rates of mental disorders declined from 1990 to 2019 with an average percentage change (APC) of -0.189% (95% UI: -0.25, -0.11), but increased significantly by 4.018% (95% UI: 2.48, 5.00) from 2019 to 2021. Age-standardized incidence rates initially increased by 3.028% (95% UI: 1.08, 5.5) from 1990 to 1993, decreased by -5.308% (95% UI: -6.92, -3.94) from 2006 to 2010, and then spiked by 10.054% (95% UI: 6.45, 12.62) between 2019 and 2021. Age-standardized death rates showed a steady increase with an APC of 6.288% (95% UI: 6.2, 6.38). APC analysis showed that incidence risk increases with age, peaking at 1.14 in the 60-64 age group. Prevalence risk rose over time, and mortality risk also significantly increased between 2017-2021.The resurgence of mental disorders, particularly from 2019 to 2021, underscores the need for enhanced mental health interventions and policies in India.

Keywords: Health and Morbidity, Gender Dynamics

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