Is a Zero-Population Growth a Realistic Scenario for Europe? An Analysis Based on the Recent UN 2024 World Population Prospects

Christos Bagavos, Panteion University
Alexandra Tragaki, Harokopion University of Athens

This work examines the feasibility of achieving zero population growth in Europe by 2050, based on the 2024 UN World Population Prospects. The analysis considers demographic factors like fertility, mortality, and migration trends, alongside population momentum. Despite some potential for fertility recovery, European population dynamics are heavily influenced by demographic aging, with fewer women of reproductive age and a rising elderly population. Even substantial increases in fertility or migration cannot fully offset the expected population decline. The study uses decomposition methods to assess the interaction between these factors and to project future demographic shifts. Findings suggest that while migration may reduce population shrinkage, it will not prevent it. Policy implications are discussed, emphasizing the need for realistic demographic planning, given that Europe's population decline appears inevitable, and strategies should focus on managing this decline rather than attempting to reverse it.

Keywords: Quantum and tempo effects, Population Ageing, Decomposition analysis, Economic Demography

See extended abstract.