Trends in Lifespan Disparity in Sub-Saharan Africa from 1950 to 2023

Chunyong Chen, University of Pennsylvania
Siying Lyu, Peking University
Michel Guillot, University of Pennsylvania & INED
Jinjing Wu, Asian Demographic Research Institute
LEIWEN JIANG, Shanghai University and Population Council
Paolo Vicerra, Shanghai University
Yunxiang Wan, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research

People in Africa would face how much lifetime uncertainty during the era of mortality shocks is unclear but crucial. Using United Nations's data, this study explores the dynamics of lifespan disparity and life expectancy from 1950 to 2023 for all countries in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). We assess the impact of major mortality shocks across six periods: pre-HIV (1950-1980), HIV spread (1980-1990), full-blown HIV shock (1990-2000), post-HIV (2000-2019), Covid-19 shock (2019-2021), and post-Covid (2021-2023). Age groups that primarily drove mortality trends are identified by using a linear integral method. We also perform a sensitivity analysis, showing to what extent lifespan disparity would react to age-specific mortality changes. Lifespan disparity dynamics showed significant geographic variations: Southern SSA experienced worsened lifespan disparity during the HIV pandemic, while eastern and central nations (e.g., Rwanda, South Sudan) saw drastic changes due to wars. In contrast, most western SSA countries achieved steady improvements in both lifespan disparity and life expectancy. Infants and children were key drivers of these improvements. Southern SSA countries took nearly two decades to recover from the HIV shock, while older ages worsened lifespan disparity during the Covid-19 pandemic. Preventing premature deaths remains crucial in improving lifespan disparity and life expectancy in SSA.

Keywords: Population, Shocks and Pandemics, Mathematical demography , Data visualisation

See paper.