Unveiling Covid-19's Toll: How the Pandemic Reshaped Life Expectancy in Brazil and Mexico

Marcos Gonzaga, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte (UFRN)
Everton E. C. Lima, UNICAMP
Bernardo L. Queiroz, centro de desenvolvimento e planejamento regional
Flavio Freire, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte
Emerson Baptista, El Colegio de Mexico
Víctor M. García-Guerrero, El Colegio de Mexico
Lilia Costa, Universidade Federal da Bahia

The COVID-19 pandemic has had a significant impact on Latin American countries, with the region being identified as an epicenter due to high infection rates and excess deaths in several countries. In Brazil and Mexico, the disease spread rapidly across regions. A key factor in understanding the pandemic’s full scope is its direct and indirect effects on mortality and life expectancy. This study aims to investigate how the COVID-19 pandemic affected mortality rates, leading to stagnation or declines in life expectancy among subnational populations in Brazil and Mexico between 2010 and 2022. Using life table functions and the Arriaga method, we analyzed how changes in mortality rates by sex, age group, and cause of death affected life expectancy at birth in these populations. Preliminary results from national-level analyses in Brazil indicate that the pandemic's effects on mortality and life expectancy extend beyond the period of official declaration. These findings highlight the extent to which changes in mortality rates by sex, age, and cause of death have had either negative or positive impacts on life expectancy, from the pre-pandemic period to the years overlapping with the pandemic.

Keywords: Decomposition analysis, Data and Methods, Mortality and Longevity, Population, Shocks and Pandemics

See extended abstract.