Unexpected and Unprecedented: Fertility Trends by Birth Order through the Pandemic

Marion Burkimsher, University of Lausanne

The widespread upturn in fertility rates across the low-fertility countries in 2021, the year after covid-19 spread over the world, was unexpected by most demographers. Changes in the TFR are generally driven by first birth rates and crises are usually characterised by low fertility. We decomposed the changes in fertility rates by birth order (TFR1, TFR2 and TFR3+) for the years 2019-2022 using data published in the Human Fertility Database for 14 low-fertility countries. We found it was upturns in TFR2 and TFR3+ that drove the TFR spike of 2001. We compared the blip of 2021 with the millennium uptick of 2000. They were a similar order of magnitude (TFR +0.03 and +0.04 respectively) but the millennium uptick was driven by first births. Tracking the proportion of births by birth order across the respective time periods confirmed this. The policy implications for enabling fertility choices are significant: the childless require a different approach compared to existing families. The pandemic measures of flexible working, financial support and easing the work-life balance motivated existing families to have another child. However, the overall uncertainty and difficulty of meeting or being able to live with a partner inhibited those wanting to start a family.

Keywords: Quantum and tempo effects, Decomposition analysis, Data visualisation , Population Policies

See extended abstract.