Socioeconomic Factors of Temperature-Related Mortality at Regional Level in Russia

Mikhail Maksimenko, University of Bologna

Both non-optimal heat and cold are associated with elevated mortality risks, with the highest burden attributed to moderately low temperatures. However, the influence of socioeconomic and climatic contexts on population resilience in cold climates remains underexplored. This study aims to address this gap by investigating the relationship between temperature and mortality focusing on Russian regions from 2004 to 2019. A two-stage meta-analytic model was employed to estimate weekly temperature-related mortality and the influence of potential modifiers. In the first stage quasi-Poisson regression with DLNM was utilized to evaluate region-specific temperature-mortality relationship segmented by four-year periods, controlling for air pollution. In the second stage, estimates were pooled into a multivariate multilevel meta-regression model, incorporating socioeconomic predictors such as income, GDP per capita, educational attainment, and characteristics of households as well as average temperatures indicating a climatic context. Findings revealed an increase in both cold- and heat-related mortality over the MMT of 17.2°C. RR at the 1st percentile of overall temperature distribution was estimated at 1.23 (1.21–1.25), and at the 99th percentile, it comprised 1.07 (1.05–1.08). Socioeconomic variables provided mixed results for income, education, air conditioning, household heating, and average temperatures, with limited findings at statistically significant levels.

Keywords: Population, Environment, and Climate Change, Mortality and Longevity, Multi-level modeling

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