Educational Differences and Fertility Transition in Peru: A Cohort Analysis of Women Born between 1936 and 1984

Robin Cavagnoud, Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú (PUCP)
Teresa Castro Martin, CSIC
Teresa Martin Garcia, Spanish Council for Scientific Research

This study examines fertility trends across educational levels in Peruvian women born between 1936 and 1984, a period corresponding to the fertility transition in Peru and most Latin American countries. Using data from 23 Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) conducted in Peru between 1986 and 2022, we analyzed a sample of 116,298 women aged 40-49 at the time of the survey, representing the final stage of their reproductive years. The sample was divided into eight cohorts: one covering birth years 1936-1949 and seven five-year cohorts from 1950 to 1984. We collected data on number of children, reproductive preferences, ages at first sexual intercourse, first union, and first child, marital status, and contraceptive use. Calculated indicators include the total fertility rate (TFR), parity progression ratios, median ages at key reproductive events, and family size expansion probabilities. Results were disaggregated by four educational levels: no education, primary, secondary, and higher education. Our findings support Bongaarts' (2003) "permanent difference" model, showing persistent fertility differentials across educational groups throughout the transition. While gaps have narrowed, a consistent negative correlation between education and fertility remains. The results suggest that fertility decline is primarily driven by educational expansion, allowing more women to adopt a reproductive pattern of 2-3 children on average.

Keywords: Fertility, Longitudinal studies , Human Capital, Education, and Work, Family Planning and Contraception

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